* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 40 49 56 62 67 72 76 79 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 40 49 56 62 67 72 76 79 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 7 7 12 11 9 10 6 11 4 10 5 SHEAR DIR 354 21 45 39 50 90 51 83 62 85 45 78 16 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 55 55 56 49 47 49 43 46 41 45 44 42 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 5 1 1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -20 -26 -16 -25 -31 -43 -46 -34 -34 -9 -6 4 1 LAND (KM) 126 118 125 113 104 110 80 158 227 263 308 303 295 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.8 24.4 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.4 76.3 77.2 78.0 79.7 81.3 82.7 84.0 85.2 86.4 87.5 88.6 HEAT CONTENT 63 73 82 92 104 117 99 67 73 85 110 89 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 608 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 32. 38. 44. 49. 54. 59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 36. 42. 47. 52. 56. 59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.35 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.81 Prob of RI= 30.0% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)