* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 51 58 63 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 51 58 63 65 66 66 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 11 12 9 5 5 5 4 10 11 14 21 SHEAR DIR 64 65 65 65 76 19 347 355 295 297 275 276 275 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 144 142 141 141 141 141 144 147 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 500-300 MB RH 30 32 33 33 33 33 35 36 37 36 39 34 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 850 MB VORT -9 -1 5 5 0 1 -5 -14 -19 -27 -33 -45 -61 LAND (KM) 943 874 820 777 757 788 924 1074 1194 1352 1506 1655 1809 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 151.1 152.3 153.5 154.8 156.1 159.0 161.9 164.9 167.7 170.3 172.6 174.6 176.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 733 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -12 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 28. 35. 39. 42. 43. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 31. 38. 43. 45. 46. 46. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.34 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.04 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 2.71 Prob of RI= 3.8% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)