* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 73 69 62 53 44 36 30 26 25 23 V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 73 69 62 53 44 36 30 26 25 23 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 13 13 11 10 7 6 9 8 5 2 7 SHEAR DIR 52 56 90 100 104 86 130 87 129 109 147 194 226 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.3 23.4 22.8 22.5 22.1 22.1 22.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 130 125 120 108 99 93 90 86 86 91 95 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 500-300 MB RH 66 61 61 59 60 53 50 40 34 24 21 13 11 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 108 97 99 109 112 88 85 77 86 69 71 66 58 LAND (KM) 598 641 661 680 708 770 833 903 1038 1201 1363 1558 1690 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.3 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.3 118.6 119.9 121.5 123.5 125.6 127.5 129.8 132.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 501 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -25. -31. -35. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -27. -35. -42. -48. -52. -54. -56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -27. -36. -44. -50. -54. -55. -57. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 26.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.12 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 3.00 Prob of RI= 9.3% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)