* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 49 57 63 69 72 76 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 49 57 63 69 72 76 78 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 7 11 15 5 13 7 12 9 12 11 14 SHEAR DIR 18 40 35 43 60 66 56 64 47 71 58 86 68 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 56 55 51 48 51 49 47 48 49 48 49 46 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -14 -8 -17 -23 -26 -27 -24 -11 -8 14 16 30 17 LAND (KM) 108 119 118 114 122 145 69 87 179 199 205 221 248 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.3 24.1 24.5 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.8 76.6 77.4 78.2 79.6 80.9 81.9 82.9 83.7 84.3 84.7 85.1 HEAT CONTENT 68 78 85 96 105 116 101 67 78 82 77 78 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 33. 39. 46. 50. 54. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 37. 43. 49. 52. 56. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 4.65 Prob of RI= 23.3% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)