* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 41 47 52 55 60 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 41 47 52 55 60 64 65 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 17 17 17 12 18 13 18 18 12 10 13 SHEAR DIR 314 301 306 314 309 275 267 259 263 249 263 227 227 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 131 132 133 133 133 134 141 145 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 500-300 MB RH 43 39 44 48 50 61 63 65 63 61 57 53 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -3 0 2 2 6 4 4 0 3 850 MB VORT 59 47 50 42 32 48 46 48 27 19 -14 -29 -46 LAND (KM) 2023 2111 2053 2005 1962 1913 1884 1918 1987 1988 1940 2019 1962 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.6 21.9 23.6 25.6 27.7 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.5 38.6 39.7 40.7 42.3 43.7 44.9 46.2 47.4 48.6 48.8 48.0 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 11 14 15 17 23 23 21 23 29 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 18. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 16. 22. 27. 30. 35. 39. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.43 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.16 Scaled RI index= 3.65 Prob of RI= 7.5% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)