* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 40 48 58 67 72 77 79 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 40 48 58 58 46 51 54 57 43 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 7 12 14 6 12 7 13 8 12 7 12 SHEAR DIR 18 36 23 36 54 40 35 11 27 32 31 52 36 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.7 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 56 56 52 50 51 50 52 51 50 50 54 53 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 2 0 -2 -5 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT -16 -11 -20 -24 -23 -22 -7 1 8 29 36 49 26 LAND (KM) 153 172 192 198 205 185 71 -1 -21 38 66 14 -27 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.9 25.4 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.8 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.4 76.1 76.8 77.5 78.6 79.6 80.3 81.0 81.6 81.9 81.8 81.7 HEAT CONTENT 64 76 79 88 103 64 104 101 9999 56 54 54 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 605 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 30. 39. 44. 50. 53. 57. 60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 15. 23. 33. 42. 47. 52. 54. 57. 59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.81 Prob of RI= 29.8% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)