* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 64 60 56 47 38 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 64 60 56 47 38 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 12 10 10 9 5 8 4 11 5 6 3 SHEAR DIR 74 78 83 83 73 106 42 122 129 113 132 156 231 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.1 24.4 23.3 22.6 22.2 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 124 117 110 98 91 87 86 84 87 91 94 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 63 67 62 60 61 50 46 41 35 28 22 18 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 86 95 104 100 89 75 69 62 61 49 46 60 50 LAND (KM) 617 636 653 666 690 754 798 886 1027 1191 1385 1519 1641 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.0 22.7 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.6 116.4 117.1 117.8 119.1 120.6 122.3 124.2 126.1 128.2 130.2 132.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 503 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -18. -25. -29. -32. -33. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -29. -38. -44. -49. -52. -54. -54. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -32. -41. -47. -53. -56. -56. -56. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.42 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 2.61 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)