* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 47 57 66 73 78 81 81 82 82 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 47 57 53 55 59 62 63 64 64 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 14 15 14 10 9 9 10 10 14 8 15 SHEAR DIR 29 32 48 49 69 43 58 32 44 39 68 59 83 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 12 500-300 MB RH 53 51 50 48 48 46 49 47 48 47 48 48 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 850 MB VORT -20 -30 -35 -31 -17 -18 2 0 20 17 25 12 24 LAND (KM) 214 231 232 235 225 85 -30 34 100 187 246 275 309 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.0 76.8 77.6 78.3 79.5 80.7 81.8 82.6 83.4 84.0 84.5 85.1 HEAT CONTENT 77 83 91 101 44 106 9999 52 51 59 64 55 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 594 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 20. 25. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 34. 41. 46. 50. 51. 52. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 27. 36. 43. 48. 51. 51. 52. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 30.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.96 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 4.81 Prob of RI= 29.9% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)