* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 63 59 55 45 36 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 63 59 55 45 36 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 9 7 8 6 5 8 7 11 8 8 6 SHEAR DIR 86 82 87 81 99 124 107 130 104 120 121 149 154 SST (C) 26.3 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.8 22.8 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.0 22.6 22.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 115 108 103 93 87 87 87 84 91 94 97 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 500-300 MB RH 60 55 53 56 49 44 38 38 29 23 17 16 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 2 850 MB VORT 98 98 97 90 84 80 55 44 27 32 40 29 26 LAND (KM) 643 654 678 715 758 809 830 898 1014 1219 1480 1637 1792 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.5 22.4 23.4 23.5 23.3 23.5 24.3 24.3 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.6 117.4 118.1 118.8 120.4 121.7 122.6 123.8 126.2 130.0 132.4 133.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 493 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -23. -29. -33. -35. -35. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -25. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -25. -33. -41. -47. -52. -55. -56. -56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -11. -15. -25. -34. -43. -49. -54. -57. -57. -57. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.53 SST (C) : Value: 25.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 45.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.16 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.91 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 2.63 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)