* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWELVE 08/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 54 64 72 77 80 82 84 86 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 54 64 51 37 41 42 45 47 SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 15 9 6 14 7 16 11 18 7 4 11 SHEAR DIR 12 34 52 67 35 38 14 28 6 37 112 74 194 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 12 11 13 11 13 500-300 MB RH 53 53 54 51 54 53 51 55 57 53 49 51 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 -1 850 MB VORT -19 -29 -16 -2 -3 5 10 20 25 34 28 23 38 LAND (KM) 237 247 258 281 220 132 39 -41 -24 68 194 293 238 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.9 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.8 76.5 77.2 77.7 78.1 78.9 79.8 80.6 81.4 82.6 84.3 85.6 86.3 HEAT CONTENT 82 88 101 97 90 91 99 9999 9999 36 53 64 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 596 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 20. 25. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 31. 38. 44. 48. 51. 54. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 34. 42. 47. 50. 52. 54. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWELVE 8/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 30.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.99 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 4.90 Prob of RI= 33.5% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)