* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 50 57 65 71 76 79 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 50 57 65 71 76 79 78 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 7 5 7 4 8 9 7 7 8 9 14 SHEAR DIR 317 335 319 311 292 255 198 240 227 260 223 239 243 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 134 135 134 134 134 135 145 146 145 142 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 500-300 MB RH 42 47 48 52 55 60 62 56 56 51 45 44 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 3 2 3 5 850 MB VORT 47 38 42 48 48 51 65 61 58 12 -31 -44 -54 LAND (KM) 1911 1860 1815 1791 1765 1748 1777 1836 1950 1911 1928 2015 1990 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.2 19.0 20.2 22.1 24.3 26.4 28.1 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 39.1 40.2 41.2 42.0 42.7 43.8 44.6 45.8 47.0 48.4 49.1 49.1 47.7 HEAT CONTENT 13 19 26 27 27 28 24 24 23 32 21 15 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 524 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 34. 42. 48. 52. 54. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 32. 40. 46. 51. 54. 53. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 4.41 Prob of RI= 17.3% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)