* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 57 52 43 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 57 52 43 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 10 10 8 5 9 4 8 4 7 6 7 SHEAR DIR 81 73 73 91 112 83 124 137 119 165 154 220 209 SST (C) 25.8 25.2 24.6 23.9 23.3 22.7 22.3 22.2 22.0 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 112 104 98 92 88 87 84 86 91 94 97 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 500-300 MB RH 57 53 55 48 46 41 35 34 29 23 19 17 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 850 MB VORT 104 97 95 99 92 78 66 47 35 34 31 21 19 LAND (KM) 646 670 703 739 776 828 913 1008 1122 1297 1476 1638 1810 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.4 24.0 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.1 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.8 122.3 123.8 125.4 127.4 129.8 132.3 134.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 453 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -22. -27. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -25. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -33. -40. -46. -50. -51. -52. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -8. -13. -22. -32. -40. -47. -51. -53. -53. -53. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 24.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 46.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.07 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 2.68 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)