* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWELVE 08/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 41 49 57 65 70 75 77 80 81 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 41 49 57 39 32 37 40 43 44 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 12 8 10 12 17 15 20 11 2 8 8 SHEAR DIR 18 37 54 43 27 24 2 13 360 44 314 161 191 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 11 11 500-300 MB RH 53 50 49 51 49 52 53 56 53 54 50 51 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -34 -25 -10 -5 -12 22 13 48 41 72 45 80 65 LAND (KM) 269 285 303 277 222 138 15 -83 -22 37 135 219 236 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.1 76.6 77.1 77.6 78.0 78.8 80.0 81.0 81.8 82.8 84.0 85.0 85.8 HEAT CONTENT 86 91 101 103 103 99 88 9999 9999 28 45 43 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 608 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 25. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 32. 37. 43. 47. 50. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 35. 40. 45. 47. 50. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWELVE 8/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 30.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.20 Scaled RI index= 4.57 Prob of RI= 21.1% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)