* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 56 63 68 71 74 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 56 63 68 71 74 73 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 5 5 7 0 12 8 12 10 15 16 20 SHEAR DIR 312 322 337 282 270 110 226 233 239 218 231 240 255 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 135 135 134 133 133 139 145 142 138 133 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 500-300 MB RH 40 43 48 52 55 59 57 51 50 48 47 49 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 6 850 MB VORT 32 32 43 45 36 44 51 49 30 -10 -28 -21 -27 LAND (KM) 1860 1823 1791 1771 1751 1770 1815 1927 2007 1998 2129 2028 2004 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.5 19.5 21.2 23.2 25.4 27.6 29.3 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.8 41.7 42.3 42.9 43.9 44.8 46.0 47.1 47.9 47.5 46.1 43.5 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 27 27 29 27 22 22 21 30 14 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 529 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 33. 40. 45. 48. 50. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 31. 38. 43. 46. 49. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 4.30 Prob of RI= 15.4% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)