* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 57 52 46 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 57 52 46 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 12 13 11 9 11 10 11 4 9 7 8 SHEAR DIR 87 86 104 126 140 137 149 149 172 164 177 208 224 SST (C) 24.9 24.3 23.7 23.2 22.8 22.4 22.2 22.0 22.0 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 108 102 97 93 89 87 84 84 90 93 96 99 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 500-300 MB RH 48 50 43 42 37 33 28 24 23 20 20 19 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 0 1 3 0 1 2 6 1 0 -2 0 850 MB VORT 101 96 94 90 92 71 69 47 43 33 25 22 12 LAND (KM) 663 696 738 776 802 873 999 1141 1293 1482 1620 1770 1931 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.0 118.7 119.5 120.3 121.8 123.7 125.4 127.1 129.1 131.4 133.6 135.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 479 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -11. -19. -26. -31. -34. -35. -33. -32. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -19. -30. -40. -49. -55. -58. -59. -60. -60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -13. -19. -31. -42. -50. -57. -60. -61. -61. -61. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 23.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 38.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 2.27 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)