* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 49 58 66 74 76 81 82 85 86 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 49 58 50 36 38 42 44 46 47 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 8 10 13 15 19 14 18 6 6 6 8 SHEAR DIR 28 39 38 22 29 354 14 354 12 358 353 186 183 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -50.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 14 13 12 13 11 11 10 11 9 12 10 500-300 MB RH 50 51 53 51 51 55 58 59 57 53 52 54 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 -2 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT -25 -15 -4 -15 -2 21 34 60 67 74 63 70 64 LAND (KM) 299 320 276 226 178 77 -34 -45 19 86 185 214 212 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.9 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.1 77.5 78.0 78.4 79.4 80.5 81.5 82.4 83.4 84.6 85.8 87.1 HEAT CONTENT 92 100 103 103 97 100 9999 9999 22 41 44 50 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 35. 39. 45. 47. 50. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 31. 39. 41. 46. 47. 50. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 30.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.91 Prob of RI= 33.6% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)