* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 52 59 64 67 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 52 59 64 67 71 71 SHEAR (KTS) 11 7 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 13 17 22 24 SHEAR DIR 282 276 270 270 273 233 253 222 246 229 239 228 239 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 134 134 133 133 135 142 146 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 500-300 MB RH 40 43 48 49 56 55 56 49 46 43 42 44 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 2 1 0 2 9 850 MB VORT 24 39 45 36 41 63 76 62 23 -12 -21 -12 10 LAND (KM) 1907 1877 1843 1829 1818 1837 1865 1954 1906 1862 1867 1958 1930 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.8 23.5 25.3 26.8 28.3 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.5 42.3 42.9 43.4 44.2 45.4 46.7 48.2 49.3 50.0 49.9 49.2 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 21 24 25 24 23 22 28 31 23 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 546 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 29. 36. 41. 44. 46. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 27. 34. 39. 42. 46. 46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.07 Prob of RI= 12.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)