* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 52 46 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 52 46 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 14 11 6 10 9 14 10 11 11 9 11 SHEAR DIR 85 111 128 139 137 143 152 157 199 189 231 225 246 SST (C) 24.2 23.6 23.1 22.7 22.4 22.1 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 107 101 96 92 89 86 86 84 88 92 94 97 100 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 500-300 MB RH 49 41 41 38 36 30 27 24 23 22 23 20 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 2 1 0 1 1 6 9 0 -4 -3 -1 0 850 MB VORT 94 91 83 87 75 61 43 31 24 28 29 24 33 LAND (KM) 694 728 750 776 804 909 1053 1220 1410 1537 1668 1811 1953 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.7 119.3 120.1 120.9 122.8 124.6 126.5 128.5 130.5 132.5 134.5 136.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 422 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -3 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -22. -29. -34. -36. -36. -35. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -19. -31. -42. -51. -57. -61. -63. -63. -64. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -13. -19. -32. -43. -52. -59. -63. -65. -65. -65. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 23.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 32.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 2.41 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)