* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 56 62 71 78 84 84 87 87 87 87 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 56 62 71 53 37 42 44 44 44 44 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 11 12 9 19 15 16 15 5 7 10 20 SHEAR DIR 6 19 28 35 16 354 21 3 35 13 139 207 207 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 14 500-300 MB RH 50 54 56 53 53 51 58 59 55 53 53 49 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 -1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -3 4 0 4 19 5 48 42 67 47 75 67 97 LAND (KM) 327 271 218 172 126 56 -54 -9 74 166 207 125 62 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.6 28.6 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 77.0 77.5 78.0 78.5 78.9 79.6 80.7 81.9 83.1 84.2 84.9 85.7 86.4 HEAT CONTENT 101 102 102 103 103 97 9999 22 36 48 41 37 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 696 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 25. 32. 38. 41. 45. 47. 48. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 22. 31. 38. 44. 44. 47. 47. 47. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 30.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 5.61 Prob of RI= 57.0% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)