* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 41 48 55 63 69 72 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 41 48 55 63 69 72 72 72 70 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 10 9 1 12 5 8 10 18 19 24 23 SHEAR DIR 297 288 279 274 238 229 217 208 199 230 241 256 274 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 134 134 134 134 139 146 149 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 42 47 50 53 58 55 50 43 34 30 28 30 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 3 -5 6 14 21 850 MB VORT 33 44 41 47 56 68 76 65 0 -27 -58 -27 -9 LAND (KM) 1852 1824 1798 1789 1784 1795 1829 1825 1731 1642 1557 1480 1407 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.9 23.8 24.5 24.8 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 41.3 42.2 43.0 43.7 44.3 45.4 46.8 48.2 49.8 51.0 52.2 53.2 54.2 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 25 26 26 22 26 29 34 33 29 29 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 558 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 35. 41. 44. 43. 43. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 25. 33. 39. 42. 42. 42. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 4.19 Prob of RI= 14.1% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)