* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 41 34 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 41 34 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 7 2 6 10 7 12 4 7 3 8 8 SHEAR DIR 102 111 123 106 125 148 139 161 210 184 218 206 242 SST (C) 23.7 23.1 22.7 22.4 22.2 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 96 92 89 87 84 86 86 89 91 93 95 99 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 500-300 MB RH 44 40 40 37 32 29 27 25 23 23 23 20 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 4 4 2 0 -1 -1 850 MB VORT 75 64 67 68 59 60 45 40 30 30 27 20 3 LAND (KM) 632 674 687 720 759 886 1053 1234 1378 1498 1590 1743 1920 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.5 24.0 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.4 119.1 120.0 120.9 122.8 124.9 126.9 128.9 130.7 132.2 134.3 136.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 575 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -20. -25. -29. -30. -29. -28. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -26. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -22. -34. -43. -50. -53. -53. -53. -52. -51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -14. -21. -28. -40. -48. -54. -56. -55. -53. -52. -53. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 22.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 38.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 1.43 Prob of RI= 1.6% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)