* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 59 67 75 79 82 86 88 89 89 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 59 52 37 40 43 46 49 43 33 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 13 12 16 20 14 14 2 5 18 20 33 SHEAR DIR 9 15 36 15 6 25 9 29 82 179 210 215 211 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 11 12 9 11 8 12 8 13 500-300 MB RH 53 54 52 52 54 56 60 58 56 53 53 47 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 0 0 5 0 -1 -1 1 1 0 -3 850 MB VORT 11 -3 3 21 22 27 58 65 77 96 119 123 109 LAND (KM) 257 210 164 114 64 -26 -49 40 127 198 78 -9 -152 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.6 29.0 30.2 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.6 78.1 78.5 79.0 79.5 80.4 81.5 82.6 83.8 84.8 85.5 85.5 84.8 HEAT CONTENT 100 101 103 103 94 9999 9999 24 46 41 32 1 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 760 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 29. 35. 40. 45. 49. 50. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 35. 39. 42. 46. 48. 49. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 30.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 5.60 Prob of RI= 56.8% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)