* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 42 49 56 63 68 69 70 72 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 42 49 56 63 68 69 70 72 71 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 10 4 8 9 8 8 15 20 21 20 21 SHEAR DIR 279 276 272 271 221 245 193 233 212 242 243 282 309 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 134 134 135 138 143 148 152 154 155 157 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 500-300 MB RH 40 46 51 53 52 51 47 39 34 33 32 45 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 8 7 -3 -9 850 MB VORT 38 39 47 48 59 68 65 23 -7 -29 -7 1 29 LAND (KM) 1768 1749 1736 1734 1736 1749 1768 1716 1600 1462 1344 1205 1081 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.6 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.0 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.2 44.0 44.6 45.2 46.4 47.9 49.5 51.0 52.6 54.1 55.8 57.4 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 28 26 24 25 32 33 36 37 41 55 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 627 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 41. 42. 42. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 33. 38. 39. 40. 42. 41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 4.35 Prob of RI= 16.0% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)