* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 37 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 2 5 8 4 11 12 11 13 13 18 18 SHEAR DIR 86 122 53 108 130 172 148 178 175 206 208 230 242 SST (C) 22.9 22.5 22.2 22.0 21.8 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 94 90 87 84 82 82 84 86 87 89 90 92 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 500-300 MB RH 40 39 40 35 34 32 30 30 28 28 26 21 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 3 4 0 -4 -2 850 MB VORT 69 68 57 49 42 27 20 5 4 11 12 -16 -24 LAND (KM) 648 641 634 647 670 795 948 1097 1199 1329 1473 1611 1731 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.3 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.9 119.3 120.0 120.7 122.5 124.3 126.3 128.3 130.3 132.2 134.0 135.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 532 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -18. -23. -25. -26. -24. -22. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -14. -12. -10. -7. -5. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -25. -27. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -20. -27. -38. -47. -53. -56. -57. -58. -57. -58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -16. -23. -30. -41. -50. -56. -58. -58. -57. -57. -59. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 22.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 42.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.04 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 1.30 Prob of RI= 1.5% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)