* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 52 57 59 57 53 48 45 40 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 52 57 59 57 53 48 45 40 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 16 12 15 15 13 11 14 11 14 13 14 SHEAR DIR 72 75 95 98 92 115 111 106 109 124 121 146 158 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.5 27.3 26.5 25.5 24.6 24.1 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 156 154 149 142 140 131 121 112 106 101 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 12 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 66 72 65 63 65 61 52 52 44 41 36 36 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 3 3 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 20 20 8 2 2 9 -3 -7 -22 -19 -25 -25 -29 LAND (KM) 172 202 245 276 329 488 527 629 754 891 1064 1216 1367 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.4 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.0 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.5 105.3 106.3 107.3 109.6 111.9 114.3 116.6 118.8 121.2 123.4 125.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 539 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 29. 28. 25. 21. 17. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 33. 34. 32. 28. 23. 20. 15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.11 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 4.39 Prob of RI= 35.2% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)