* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 61 69 77 82 86 91 93 93 91 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 61 41 33 41 44 49 45 34 29 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 11 12 16 13 15 9 8 6 20 27 27 SHEAR DIR 346 21 23 356 3 30 2 19 304 209 235 223 232 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 9 11 7 500-300 MB RH 54 56 56 53 54 62 59 55 52 55 54 52 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -2 0 -1 0 4 1 0 0 -4 -3 -1 850 MB VORT -9 -6 17 28 14 60 61 95 61 115 96 107 89 LAND (KM) 176 137 97 57 17 -51 -13 14 88 169 -4 -152 -216 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.3 28.3 29.9 31.4 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.8 79.2 79.6 80.0 81.1 81.9 82.6 83.5 84.5 85.4 84.8 83.1 HEAT CONTENT 103 103 102 99 91 9999 21 24 43 33 5 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 696 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 37. 42. 48. 49. 50. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 46. 48. 48. 46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 30.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 5.06 Prob of RI= 38.9% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)