* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 39 45 52 59 63 66 71 75 75 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 39 45 52 59 63 66 71 75 75 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 6 9 12 7 7 6 19 18 20 20 18 SHEAR DIR 255 253 234 218 237 240 227 203 230 223 243 244 252 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 135 135 135 139 145 149 152 154 155 157 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 500-300 MB RH 43 50 52 54 50 48 46 39 34 36 34 47 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 1 11 2 14 850 MB VORT 32 41 47 61 62 74 55 22 14 14 29 32 53 LAND (KM) 1725 1713 1705 1707 1711 1730 1732 1692 1567 1452 1349 1237 1169 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 44.0 44.7 45.2 45.7 47.0 48.4 49.9 51.3 52.7 54.0 55.5 56.8 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 28 26 24 27 34 33 37 37 40 51 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 722 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 31. 35. 38. 42. 45. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 41. 45. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.42 Prob of RI= 17.4% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)