* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 8 10 9 8 13 12 15 18 25 24 31 SHEAR DIR 100 54 101 141 167 181 182 205 212 215 227 231 238 SST (C) 22.5 22.2 22.0 21.9 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 90 87 84 83 82 84 87 89 90 93 95 98 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 500-300 MB RH 40 37 34 32 30 29 27 24 21 18 16 12 10 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 3 0 0 1 1 9 2 -3 -1 1 0 850 MB VORT 77 66 65 66 56 34 35 38 47 54 44 20 -7 LAND (KM) 663 674 692 724 767 926 1116 1271 1446 1616 1785 1825 1733 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.6 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.6 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.8 120.4 121.2 122.0 124.0 126.4 128.9 131.4 133.8 136.1 138.7 140.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 521 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -21. -22. -22. -20. -17. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -6. -4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -23. -34. -42. -48. -51. -53. -55. -56. -58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -13. -19. -25. -35. -42. -47. -50. -50. -52. -53. -58. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 22.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 45.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 56.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 1.37 Prob of RI= 1.6% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)