* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 49 54 55 53 49 43 39 34 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 49 54 55 53 49 43 39 34 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 13 16 14 15 13 6 6 5 9 4 9 SHEAR DIR 68 78 82 84 91 84 110 109 97 119 169 176 183 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 27.7 26.9 26.1 24.6 23.5 22.7 22.2 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 156 154 144 136 127 112 100 92 87 84 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 11 12 9 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 75 72 68 69 72 66 61 51 48 42 38 34 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 0 -1 -1 -2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 36 22 11 22 26 16 5 -9 -9 -11 -20 -27 -37 LAND (KM) 148 188 235 275 349 458 473 598 726 906 1040 1191 1335 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.7 105.7 106.9 108.0 110.5 112.9 115.5 118.0 120.6 123.1 125.3 127.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 622 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 19. 21. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 25. 27. 26. 22. 17. 13. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 29. 30. 28. 24. 18. 14. 9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 4.17 Prob of RI= 30.7% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)