* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 62 66 74 80 87 91 96 96 96 92 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 46 39 37 43 50 54 59 48 34 29 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 15 14 15 11 13 5 4 14 17 26 31 SHEAR DIR 358 16 19 20 18 22 11 301 333 236 228 222 226 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.4 29.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 155 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -50.8 -51.0 -50.2 -50.6 -49.7 -50.2 -49.5 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 11 8 11 7 500-300 MB RH 56 58 55 52 56 60 57 55 53 56 55 56 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 -3 -1 0 4 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 850 MB VORT -8 16 27 14 28 81 74 99 87 100 104 112 118 LAND (KM) 116 65 15 -34 -66 4 68 118 157 98 -36 -211 -211 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.9 28.9 30.3 32.0 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.0 82.0 83.1 83.8 84.4 84.8 85.2 84.1 81.9 HEAT CONTENT 103 97 88 9999 9999 26 35 44 37 27 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 650 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 23. 30. 37. 42. 47. 48. 47. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 37. 41. 46. 46. 46. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 30.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 5.14 Prob of RI= 41.3% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)