* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 57 64 69 73 79 84 85 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 57 64 69 73 79 84 85 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 8 9 7 8 2 10 13 18 9 9 6 SHEAR DIR 250 238 216 225 221 204 181 190 222 218 254 243 295 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 137 138 142 146 151 152 154 155 157 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 500-300 MB RH 48 48 52 51 51 48 44 38 35 33 39 43 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -3 -1 0 6 7 8 13 850 MB VORT 43 51 64 63 66 80 47 32 25 41 46 55 50 LAND (KM) 1632 1631 1633 1635 1639 1674 1653 1610 1471 1337 1198 1070 979 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 44.9 45.5 46.1 46.6 47.8 49.2 50.6 52.1 53.6 55.1 56.6 57.8 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 31 29 27 31 40 35 44 46 61 52 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 642 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 35. 41. 45. 50. 54. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 49. 54. 55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.46 Prob of RI= 18.6% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)