* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 10 8 6 10 14 14 20 23 24 27 29 SHEAR DIR 90 132 159 177 175 178 204 207 220 224 235 231 239 SST (C) 22.2 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 87 84 83 83 83 86 87 90 91 94 96 100 102 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 3 500-300 MB RH 34 31 29 29 31 26 24 22 19 16 11 7 8 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 0 0 0 0 7 4 -2 -10 -1 3 1 850 MB VORT 70 65 65 62 43 36 25 37 40 43 34 0 -43 LAND (KM) 692 720 756 811 873 1057 1214 1362 1548 1720 1896 1698 1600 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.8 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.8 121.5 122.4 123.2 125.3 127.8 130.3 132.9 135.3 137.6 140.2 141.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 529 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -19. -19. -16. -13. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. -7. -12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -28. -36. -41. -44. -47. -49. -50. -53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -10. -14. -19. -26. -32. -36. -39. -40. -41. -44. -50. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 22.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 52.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 2.03 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)