* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * INVEST 08/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 49 51 50 46 41 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 49 51 50 46 41 38 35 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 16 14 12 11 7 7 7 10 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 86 77 81 84 89 90 92 94 99 133 177 199 270 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.2 26.2 24.9 24.0 23.2 22.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 153 150 143 139 128 115 105 97 93 97 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 9 7 7 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 73 69 72 74 70 65 59 49 47 40 36 29 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 850 MB VORT 28 19 20 25 22 17 21 7 -12 -16 -15 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 212 267 314 394 483 530 622 746 911 1106 1276 1476 1697 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.8 106.9 108.2 109.4 111.7 114.3 116.9 119.5 122.3 124.9 127.6 130.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 19. 21. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 26. 25. 21. 16. 13. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 26. 25. 21. 16. 13. 10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.18 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)