* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 74 79 83 88 92 95 97 94 90 86 V (KT) LAND 60 65 54 44 38 42 47 52 54 56 37 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 18 19 20 19 11 11 6 17 23 30 32 SHEAR DIR 350 12 20 15 12 11 9 310 274 253 234 242 235 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.1 29.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 151 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 10 12 9 10 6 10 500-300 MB RH 56 54 54 58 62 58 55 53 55 54 54 52 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 -6 -2 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 850 MB VORT 19 28 7 23 45 39 52 39 79 52 79 79 108 LAND (KM) 66 16 -33 -63 -34 49 86 118 149 25 -133 -217 -219 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.4 27.0 27.7 28.5 29.7 31.3 33.0 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.0 81.4 82.5 83.4 84.0 84.4 84.5 84.2 83.0 80.9 HEAT CONTENT 99 90 9999 9999 9999 24 41 40 32 10 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 660 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 35. 32. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. 34. 30. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 30.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.93 Scaled RI index= 5.78 Prob of RI= 62.8% is 5.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)