* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 41 49 57 65 71 76 84 90 90 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 41 49 57 65 71 76 84 90 90 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 10 9 3 6 6 11 4 7 3 6 7 SHEAR DIR 235 216 228 239 187 244 122 207 236 253 315 285 340 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 138 139 141 145 148 151 154 154 155 157 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 500-300 MB RH 46 45 47 47 47 50 43 38 31 28 33 38 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -7 -4 -5 -2 0 -1 0 3 2 1 10 6 850 MB VORT 55 72 74 80 91 84 57 40 23 45 29 24 11 LAND (KM) 1560 1555 1554 1561 1568 1616 1574 1535 1414 1304 1193 1099 1044 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.3 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.1 22.4 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.7 46.3 46.9 47.5 48.7 50.0 51.2 52.6 53.8 55.0 56.1 57.0 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 32 30 31 38 40 40 46 48 62 56 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 730 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 78 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 29. 37. 43. 48. 55. 60. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 27. 35. 41. 46. 54. 60. 60. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 4.37 Prob of RI= 16.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)