* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 8 8 10 16 17 22 27 29 28 27 30 SHEAR DIR 177 174 197 196 188 190 214 208 220 228 237 236 239 SST (C) 21.9 21.8 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 83 82 82 84 86 87 88 90 93 96 100 103 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 500-300 MB RH 32 31 28 31 27 26 26 25 22 17 12 8 8 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 1 1 0 2 12 4 -6 -3 -1 0 -3 850 MB VORT 69 74 77 63 57 55 50 64 71 66 41 20 -23 LAND (KM) 689 746 813 904 1000 1153 1280 1466 1658 1844 1766 1568 1492 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.7 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.7 122.6 123.7 124.8 127.2 129.7 132.3 134.6 136.9 139.2 141.6 143.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -16. -17. -15. -12. -9. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 0. -5. -10. -14. -19. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -22. -24. -25. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -19. -28. -35. -41. -45. -47. -49. -51. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -13. -17. -24. -30. -35. -38. -40. -41. -44. -49. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.62 SST (C) : Value: 21.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 53.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.09 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)