* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 49 55 58 56 50 43 38 33 28 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 49 55 58 56 50 43 38 33 28 SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 17 14 13 9 8 9 5 5 3 8 8 SHEAR DIR 58 61 74 78 85 94 64 96 98 173 210 228 250 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.4 24.6 23.3 22.3 22.2 22.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 150 145 140 130 112 98 88 87 92 95 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 7 5 3 2 0 1 0 1 1 500-300 MB RH 73 72 75 71 66 60 50 44 39 31 28 23 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 0 -3 -4 850 MB VORT 28 14 14 16 24 30 13 -2 -7 -1 3 -22 -36 LAND (KM) 270 310 383 469 514 545 688 836 1018 1175 1391 1549 1693 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 107.0 108.1 109.4 110.6 113.2 116.1 119.0 122.1 124.9 127.8 130.4 133.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 565 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 66 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 22. 17. 12. 6. 1. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 19. 25. 28. 26. 20. 13. 8. 3. -2. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.12 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.53 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.68 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.11 Prob of RI= 29.5% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)