* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/26/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 78 81 88 94 99 103 104 101 94 89 V (KT) LAND 65 54 46 51 55 61 68 73 76 62 39 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 17 14 16 14 4 8 7 15 28 31 39 SHEAR DIR 358 14 16 13 14 23 329 328 239 235 222 227 226 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.5 29.6 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 154 148 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.2 -50.7 -50.1 -50.6 -49.9 -50.1 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 13 11 12 9 13 9 12 5 10 500-300 MB RH 52 53 56 57 57 56 52 52 54 52 53 40 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -7 -4 -1 0 3 2 -1 -1 -4 0 -7 -5 850 MB VORT 31 18 35 59 66 63 64 55 77 70 73 75 79 LAND (KM) -10 -53 -18 7 54 103 154 196 112 -47 -235 -249 -239 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.4 27.0 27.8 28.7 30.2 32.2 34.0 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.8 81.2 81.8 82.3 83.3 84.1 84.8 85.2 85.0 84.0 82.5 80.6 HEAT CONTENT 93 9999 55 49 42 46 47 38 32 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 645 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 22. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 27. 33. 38. 40. 37. 31. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 39. 36. 29. 24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/26/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 30.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 5.64 Prob of RI= 58.1% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)