* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/26/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 50 58 66 74 80 87 92 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 50 58 66 74 80 87 92 92 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 13 6 4 5 6 7 4 6 2 8 9 SHEAR DIR 235 237 237 243 238 309 131 238 198 314 329 2 26 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 141 142 145 148 151 154 154 155 157 159 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 500-300 MB RH 43 46 49 51 52 49 44 43 34 36 40 49 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -4 0 0 2 0 -1 0 0 4 0 6 -9 850 MB VORT 75 82 90 95 91 65 39 31 39 40 46 37 22 LAND (KM) 1521 1517 1517 1534 1555 1532 1488 1407 1304 1210 1131 1048 995 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 45.8 46.6 47.3 48.0 48.7 50.0 51.4 52.6 53.8 54.9 56.0 57.2 58.2 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 34 35 39 44 42 46 49 61 58 53 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 60 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 30. 38. 46. 52. 58. 63. 65. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 28. 36. 44. 50. 57. 62. 63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/26/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.01 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 3.94 Prob of RI= 11.0% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)