* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/26/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 54 56 56 51 46 40 35 31 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 54 56 56 51 46 40 35 31 SHEAR (KTS) 19 17 14 12 11 11 14 11 16 17 20 15 12 SHEAR DIR 64 72 82 90 83 73 100 119 136 156 155 159 141 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 148 145 142 138 130 124 120 116 114 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 71 73 73 71 63 58 47 46 37 34 27 31 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -4 0 3 4 3 850 MB VORT 14 15 14 25 30 20 15 3 -3 -3 2 6 -3 LAND (KM) 316 382 459 542 567 603 723 810 906 1024 1159 1269 1366 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.9 108.9 110.0 111.1 113.4 115.5 117.2 118.7 120.2 121.8 123.2 124.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 574 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 54 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 23. 23. 19. 14. 9. 4. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 26. 26. 21. 16. 10. 5. 1. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/26/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.18 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.68 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 3.96 Prob of RI= 26.8% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)