* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/26/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 66 68 73 80 86 91 95 93 90 85 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 66 68 73 80 86 91 75 43 32 29 SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 19 17 20 15 9 1 13 12 22 31 35 SHEAR DIR 348 1 12 7 9 46 15 296 266 244 242 238 248 SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 29.6 28.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 148 125 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -49.6 -49.3 -48.8 -48.7 -48.5 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 11 11 8 9 4 500-300 MB RH 52 54 51 53 54 50 50 58 49 53 48 44 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -3 1 5 0 0 -2 2 0 -9 -1 0 15 850 MB VORT 10 19 36 48 15 32 11 68 47 84 54 93 102 LAND (KM) 6 73 126 163 209 227 241 233 101 -43 -238 -278 -297 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.6 27.6 28.9 30.5 32.2 35.0 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 82.0 82.6 83.2 83.8 84.5 84.9 85.4 85.9 85.4 83.8 81.6 78.8 HEAT CONTENT 59 55 54 54 51 59 57 44 39 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 552 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -24 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 21. 28. 32. 37. 35. 31. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 33. 30. 25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/26/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 30.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.86 Prob of RI= 32.0% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)