* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/26/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 51 58 68 75 82 89 93 94 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 51 58 68 75 82 89 93 94 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 7 6 7 2 10 1 7 4 4 10 10 SHEAR DIR 239 238 243 234 253 91 210 251 276 348 315 10 1 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 142 143 145 148 151 154 154 155 155 157 159 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 500-300 MB RH 46 49 51 50 47 48 46 37 35 39 47 47 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 1 3 2 -2 0 1 0 2 1 2 -4 850 MB VORT 80 91 96 94 79 62 37 25 36 46 45 26 8 LAND (KM) 1500 1510 1520 1541 1521 1481 1399 1310 1240 1163 1085 1014 974 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.6 22.8 23.1 23.4 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.5 48.3 49.1 49.8 51.4 52.7 53.8 54.7 55.6 56.6 57.6 58.3 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 38 42 46 42 46 49 59 59 55 51 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 640 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 65 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 31. 40. 47. 54. 60. 64. 66. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 29. 38. 45. 52. 59. 63. 64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/26/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.86 Prob of RI= 10.1% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)