* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/26/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 52 55 56 52 48 43 38 33 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 52 55 56 52 48 43 38 33 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 12 12 10 9 10 10 17 14 14 7 11 SHEAR DIR 63 62 76 79 81 98 124 123 140 142 158 144 144 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.3 25.6 25.0 24.4 24.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 146 143 142 138 129 122 116 110 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 76 74 72 67 66 53 48 41 35 28 25 24 24 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 -3 0 2 0 3 850 MB VORT 22 15 21 31 29 31 19 10 14 12 8 5 1 LAND (KM) 355 433 512 545 554 628 755 829 929 1063 1191 1335 1507 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 19.8 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.8 109.8 110.8 111.8 113.8 115.8 117.5 119.1 120.9 122.8 124.8 126.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 21. 20. 17. 12. 6. 2. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 21. 17. 13. 8. 3. -2. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/26/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.34 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 3.38 Prob of RI= 16.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)