* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 67 68 69 74 80 87 91 96 92 87 80 V (KT) LAND 65 65 67 68 69 74 80 87 91 61 38 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 20 20 23 11 9 7 14 19 26 32 33 SHEAR DIR 351 5 7 9 18 12 24 210 251 218 236 242 244 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.1 28.4 27.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 148 131 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -49.7 -50.0 -49.0 -48.7 -48.1 -48.7 -47.7 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 13 12 13 11 13 7 9 4 6 2 500-300 MB RH 54 54 55 55 54 58 57 60 56 59 53 44 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 1 4 0 0 2 16 -7 2 5 18 850 MB VORT 14 35 47 22 18 42 45 90 101 101 104 106 132 LAND (KM) 70 115 169 207 237 254 312 228 103 -134 -341 -403 -218 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.5 26.2 26.9 27.8 29.2 31.4 34.5 37.5 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.6 83.2 83.7 84.2 84.9 85.8 86.3 86.3 85.3 83.3 80.5 77.2 HEAT CONTENT 56 53 57 55 56 64 70 66 36 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 539 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. 16. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 25. 29. 33. 29. 24. 16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 31. 27. 22. 15. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.52 SST (C) : Value: 30.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.54 Prob of RI= 20.3% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)