* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 53 61 67 73 80 86 86 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 53 61 67 73 80 86 86 SHEAR (KTS) 18 13 12 15 13 16 14 14 17 12 11 17 15 SHEAR DIR 252 261 250 255 255 227 253 276 290 272 231 224 255 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 142 143 146 151 152 152 152 151 142 134 125 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 500-300 MB RH 47 49 51 48 49 50 50 49 62 67 71 65 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 5 8 1 -7 -2 7 12 -3 10 3 1 6 850 MB VORT 84 90 82 61 59 41 29 37 22 27 39 47 48 LAND (KM) 1628 1664 1654 1652 1641 1572 1534 1559 1642 1837 1701 1496 1335 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.7 23.2 24.4 25.8 27.2 29.3 31.5 33.6 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.4 49.1 49.8 50.4 51.5 52.4 52.9 52.9 52.2 50.7 49.0 47.3 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 41 35 34 37 30 27 32 12 8 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 685 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 27. 34. 40. 46. 52. 56. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 31. 37. 43. 50. 56. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.71 Prob of RI= 8.3% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)