* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 50 53 54 53 51 48 44 40 36 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 50 53 54 53 51 48 44 40 36 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 14 13 12 13 12 18 18 21 15 14 14 SHEAR DIR 67 77 79 94 96 107 131 122 133 132 143 117 133 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 144 143 142 138 131 128 124 122 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 74 70 68 68 61 46 42 34 32 24 23 23 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 1 0 1 2 1 -5 0 7 5 1 6 850 MB VORT 23 26 31 35 35 33 24 30 27 19 21 0 -9 LAND (KM) 429 505 559 569 598 708 837 953 1097 1256 1433 1538 1611 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.7 110.6 111.6 112.6 114.6 116.4 118.2 120.1 122.0 124.0 125.5 126.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 680 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 17. 16. 12. 7. 2. -3. -6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.29 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.04 Prob of RI= 10.0% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)