* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 94 96 99 104 111 116 118 118 111 101 90 V (KT) LAND 85 91 94 96 99 104 111 116 118 57 36 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 19 21 17 9 5 9 5 17 31 41 46 SHEAR DIR 2 4 12 8 21 347 273 257 244 236 282 294 291 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.3 27.8 26.4 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 139 123 104 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.1 -49.3 -48.6 -47.7 -48.3 -48.5 -48.7 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 12 13 12 12 11 9 6 6 4 4 500-300 MB RH 56 58 57 56 55 62 64 63 68 66 65 62 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 5 3 6 8 16 -7 15 850 MB VORT 51 57 28 24 38 40 92 91 121 120 138 120 141 LAND (KM) 143 183 233 268 291 314 280 179 28 -277 -380 -311 -136 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.3 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.4 30.1 32.6 35.9 38.8 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.2 83.8 84.4 84.9 85.6 86.3 86.5 86.1 84.7 82.2 79.0 75.1 HEAT CONTENT 60 69 72 64 70 72 74 60 10 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 541 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 11. 4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -4. -1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 14. 19. 26. 31. 34. 34. 28. 17. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 9. 11. 14. 19. 26. 31. 33. 33. 26. 16. 5. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 30.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 80.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.59 Prob of RI= 21.5% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)