* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 31 31 32 35 39 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 31 31 32 35 39 42 SHEAR (KTS) 18 21 26 27 24 20 24 19 26 20 16 15 19 SHEAR DIR 57 62 67 70 70 63 58 34 46 33 33 359 6 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 149 149 149 148 146 148 154 159 159 162 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 61 66 74 76 73 73 68 67 61 57 51 48 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 2 0 -3 0 0 -1 -7 0 -5 -1 0 1 850 MB VORT 21 24 26 25 18 25 21 15 6 3 -12 -43 -64 LAND (KM) 1536 1528 1528 1540 1549 1415 1287 1176 1114 1092 947 854 657 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.6 14.6 15.8 17.2 18.5 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.0 36.9 37.9 38.9 41.0 43.5 46.3 49.3 52.3 55.2 57.6 59.7 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 19 23 25 30 31 40 56 88 81 82 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 702 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. -23. -24. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 7. 9. 11. 15. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 10. 14. 17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 86.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.96 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.01 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 4.16 Prob of RI= 13.6% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)