* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 63 71 77 82 85 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 63 71 77 82 85 84 SHEAR (KTS) 17 16 18 17 12 23 14 16 13 14 15 17 21 SHEAR DIR 260 254 251 247 231 228 241 259 251 255 297 304 303 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 143 148 151 154 154 155 154 146 139 134 131 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 500-300 MB RH 49 52 52 56 57 54 51 51 58 58 52 54 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 11 4 -4 -4 1 4 11 8 3 2 15 -11 850 MB VORT 92 87 77 74 68 39 56 52 51 51 18 7 -3 LAND (KM) 1694 1671 1655 1611 1546 1469 1442 1498 1643 1637 1456 1308 1166 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.2 22.0 22.7 24.2 25.7 27.3 29.3 31.4 33.2 34.8 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.1 49.9 50.8 51.6 53.0 54.2 54.8 54.9 54.6 54.4 54.0 53.2 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 35 34 38 32 32 28 18 14 13 17 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 321/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 52 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 38.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 36. 43. 50. 54. 56. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 33. 41. 47. 52. 55. 54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.63 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 38.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.57 Prob of RI= 6.6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)