* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 52 52 48 45 40 38 33 30 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 50 52 52 48 45 40 38 33 30 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 16 13 12 12 15 21 19 24 13 16 14 SHEAR DIR 72 81 101 109 118 129 119 136 133 146 128 127 111 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 144 144 142 137 131 128 124 124 127 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 500-300 MB RH 69 65 66 62 56 47 37 31 25 20 19 18 21 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 0 0 0 4 0 4 3 10 1 3 1 850 MB VORT 29 33 38 37 36 19 34 23 20 26 14 8 -9 LAND (KM) 513 585 595 624 668 775 917 1035 1182 1319 1458 1596 1727 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.0 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.5 17.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.5 111.4 112.4 113.4 115.3 117.0 118.9 120.9 122.6 124.0 125.5 127.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 571 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 7. 3. -3. -7. -11. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 3. 0. -5. -7. -12. -15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.19 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.16 Scaled RI index= 2.91 Prob of RI= 7.5% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)